Out of Sight, Out of Airspace: Who Pays for the Mess in Space?

In 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler warned of a grim possibility: a single collision in space could set off a chain reaction of debris, rendering Earth’s orbit impassable for generations. This “Kessler Syndrome” would disrupt essential services such as GPS navigation, satellite-based weather forecasting, and global communications that billions rely on daily. With the exponential growth of space exploration, this once hypothetical threat is edging ever closer to reality.

The Space Economy has nearly doubled in size over the last decade, driven by both government and private companies. The number of objects launched into orbit has skyrocketed, with the deployment of communication satellites, scientific instruments, and commercial spacecraft growing 15 percent annually since 2017. Each launch leaves behind fragments: defunct satellites, leftover rocket stages, and collisions that lead to thousands of new fragments.

This accumulation poses a major threat. Debris from past missions don’t just drift harmlessly; they accumulate, forming minefields that endanger future exploration. In 1961, the Thor-Ablestar explosion was the first major fragmentation event, tripling the number of catalogued space debris entries. Today, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates there are over 1 million objects greater than 1 cm; and a staggering 140 million fragments under 1cm. These seemingly minuscule objects travel at velocities exceeding 28,000km/h, transforming even tiny flecks into deadly projectiles, threatening orbiting satellites, scientific missions, and astronaut safety. 

The dangers of space debris are not limited to space. ESA and NASA experts warn uncontrolled debris could re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere, endangering human life and property. Recently both a Florida home and Kenyan village were struck by International Space Station (ISS) and rocket debris respectively. British Columbia researchers model a 10 percent risk to human life if space exploration continues unabated. 

Despite its urgency, the space debris crisis remains an invisible one. Like greenhouse gas emissions, space debris remains unseen by the vast majority. However, unlike greater media awareness prompted by extreme weather events and climatic degradation, there are few visible earthly manifestations of the space debris crisis, rendering it even easier to ignore across public consciousness and political discourse. 

Governance is fragmented. There is no unified approach to regulation and even no globally accepted definition of what constitutes space debris. The ESA’s 25-year guideline, aiming to ensure that all defunct materials are cleared within 25 years of the mission, is one of the few formal standards to limit orbital debris, but it has less than 50 percent global adherence. Similar to environmental governance, where industry stakeholders have historically resisted enforceable frameworks, regulations involving space debris are enforced through ‘soft law’ voluntary agreements over binding ‘hard law’ regulations. 

Worse, accountability is elusive. Identifying the source of a given fragment is often technically difficult, especially when fragments are small or have drifted significantly from their origin. Even when attribution is possible, legal and diplomatic complexities make enforcement challenging. Cross-governmental communication is frequently hindered by political tensions, inconsistent reporting mechanisms, and incompatible national priorities.

Any response to the growing crisis must also address the rapidly growing private sector. Private companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and OneWeb are commercializing Earth’s orbits and driving exponential growth of satellite launches. In 2022, the private space industry raised over $8 billion in investments. 

Unfortunately, just like big oil, gas or tobacco, the space industry routinely downplays the dangers of their commercial activities or bury them in technical reports that rarely reach the public eye. They deter public interest regulation through promotion of voluntary agreements which lack any meaningful enforcement mechanisms. Strategic invisibility persists through non-standardized debris accountability metrics, over-reliance on “natural decay” disposal which only works under 800 km, and delayed implementation of the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) Transparency Initiative. Despite NASA identifying a SpaceX’s fragment in Saskatchewan, Canada, SpaceX refused to acknowledge the debris was theirs and only took action after significant pressure from NASA. The space industry is arguably following a similar trajectory and ‘corporate playbook’ as other vilified industries. Acknowledging the full scope of the problem could invite costly regulation, litigation, or damage commercial interests.

While questions of governance, whether international, domestic, public, or private, remain unsolved, debates also rage on over accountability, funding mechanisms, and equitable distribution of responsibility. Currently, international governance falls largely to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), through foundational treaties like the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (ensuring that space is a peaceful global commons) and the 1972 Liability Convention (determining responsibility for damage on Earth caused by space objects). These documents assert that space belongs to “all mankind" and that states bear responsibility for their objects in orbit and on Earth. However, voluntary measures and international laws offer no binding enforcement or mechanisms to hold nations, let alone private companies, accountable for space debris. 

The lack of a cohesive framework raises difficult questions about how responsibility for space debris should be distributed internationally. Should it be divided along lines of wealth or historical fault? Nations like the U.S. and EU have contributed more to the crisis and have greater technological capacity to fund debris mitigation efforts, evidenced by the ESA’s recent 86 million pound (US$115,757,612.50) contract for active debris removal. Space pollution is disproportionately dominated by the US, Russia, and China, who account for the vast majority of orbital clutter, with over 9,000 metric tons of trackable debris total. Re-entry risks are highest over equatorial regions, home to many Global South countries that contribute minimally to orbital congestion. Analogous to environmental justice arguments, equitable governance must address this disparity as the most vulnerable groups are usually also the least culpable, ensuring that cleanup costs do not fall heavily on vulnerable nations.

Proposals, like the Space Debris Reclamation Bonds (SDRBs), call for a similar approach as to the fault-contribution model proposed above with a “polluter pays” model, where contributors to space debris fund mitigation and removal. Yet at present there is no regulatory mechanism to compel them to take responsibility for their actions. This reproduces a familiar neoliberal outcome of privatized profits and socialized losses. 

The solution may lie in public-private partnerships (PPPs). The space industry has long blended public and private investment and innovation. Space stewardship would benefit from following the same model. Astroscale's successful collaboration with ESA and Japan on debris removal technologies is one example; NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program is another. These models recognize that safeguarding orbit requires cooperation, not competition.

Space debris is no longer a distant hypothetical issue, it is a growing and tangible threat with profound implications for global safety, technological progress, and environmental justice, and a test of how we govern our global commons. While the risks to satellites, astronauts, and even Earth’s surface are accelerating, public attention remains startlingly minimal. Yet as history has shown, crises ignored do not simply disappear. The longer the issue remains obscured from public view and political urgency, the more likely we are to face irreversible consequences. 

Ensuring accountability, through equitable international treaties, robust private sector regulation, and shared cleanup mechanisms, is essential to maintaining access and stewardship of space for all. To do so, we must elevate awareness, reframe the conversation, and move beyond technical framing into the realm of global public discourse.